Citation:
Abstract:
Evaluating hydrological trends is crucial for the sustainable management of water resources with the escalating impacts of climate change. This study assesses the Wadi Bouhamdane Basin in Northeast Algeria, integrating data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and the Follow-On mission (GRACE-FO) with hydrological observations and modeling to provide insights into precipitation and runoff dynamics since 1991. Using techniques such as linear regression, the Mann–Kendall trend test, cumulative departure, mutation analysis, and Morlet wavelet transformations, we identified a declining trend in annual rainfall (− 36.85 mm/decade) and an increase in runoff (20.65 mm/decade). Our rainfall analysis projected droughts from 2018 to 2020 and a water-rich phase in 2024, with predicted fluctuations extending into 2025. GRACE/GFO data from 2002 to 2022 revealed consistent reductions in terrestrial water storage (~ 0.35 cm/year), marked declines during projected drought periods, and insights into post-drought recovery and water accumulation trends. These findings are consistent with the projected wet–dry fluctuations from 2021 to 2023 and suggest the onset of a wetter period around 2024. The runoff sequence is projected to maintain its slight upward trend from 2018 to 2019, with fluctuations from 2018 to 2020, a dry period from 2022 to 2024, and a predicted dry year in 2025. Our combined approach of satellite data with ground-based measurements highlights the complex interactions influencing hydrological responses in semi-arid regions. This study underscores the significance of merging conventional hydrological methods with advanced satellite observations to enhance water management precision and resilience, advocating for a multi-source data framework to inform sustainable water resource policies amid evolving climate conditions.
